New England Patriots at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing19/21, 256 YDS, 5 TD
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing19 CAR, 82 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Brady CookPassing19/33, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing14 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- John Metchie IIIReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:51Breece Hall 59 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)42–10
- Q38:16Efton Chism III 10 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)42–3
- Q20:31Hunter Henry 13 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)35–3
- Q23:01Stefon Diggs 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)28–3
- Q29:56Nick Folk 39 Yd Field Goal21–3
- Q214:55Rhamondre Stevenson 22 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)21–0
- Q15:06Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)14–0
- Q110:42Austin Hooper 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:42Austin Hooper 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 0 NYJ · NE 86% → 94% +8NE 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q15:06Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 0 NYJ · NE 94% → 98% +4NE 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q214:55Rhamondre Stevenson 22 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 21 – 0 NYJ · NE 98% → >99% +2NE 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q29:56Nick Folk 39 Yd Field GoalNE 21 – 3 NYJ · NYJ <1% → 1% +0NYJ <1% → 1%+0 pts
- Q23:01Stefon Diggs 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 28 – 3 NYJ · NE >99% → >99% +1NE >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NE -12.5
- ML NE -1000 / NYJ +650
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -14
- NE 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NE: Elo 88.2%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- NE -686
- NYJ +686 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 27.5 – 15.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1309 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | −96 | NE: Drake Maye · NYJ: Brady Cook, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +349 Elo | NE 88.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 83.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 87.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 87.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 18.828th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 28.430th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+7.3 | Margin | −9.630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.00 | Yards per play | 4.5029th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4319th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–0 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321436 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 12th of 321577 | Elo rating | 130929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 3–2 NYJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.