Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing19/28, 193 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing22 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving5 REC, 65 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing14/23, 155 YDS, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing14 CAR, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- Mack HollinsReceiving4 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:48James Cook III 11 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)35–31
- Q49:49TreVeyon Henderson 65 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)28–31
- Q410:03Dawson Knox 14 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)28–24
- Q33:49James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)21–24
- Q311:29Dawson Knox 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)14–24
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 36 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q21:56James Cook III 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)7–21
- Q25:53TreVeyon Henderson 52 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–21
- Q10:25Drake Maye 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–14
- Q110:21Drake Maye 8 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Drake Maye 8 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)BUF 0 – 7 NE · NE 44% → 62% +18NE 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q33:49James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 21 – 24 NE · BUF 15% → 40% +25BUF 15% → 40%+25 pts
- Q410:03Dawson Knox 14 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 28 – 24 NE · BUF 34% → 75% +41BUF 34% → 75%+41 pts
- Q49:49TreVeyon Henderson 65 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)BUF 28 – 31 NE · NE 25% → 66% +41NE 25% → 66%+41 pts
- Q46:48James Cook III 11 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 35 – 31 NE · BUF 30% → 79% +48BUF 30% → 79%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -2.5
- ML BUF -142 / NE +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BUF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 50.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -127
- NE +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.0 – 23.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +21 | BUF: Josh Allen · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +1 Elo | BUF 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 50.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.9 | Points scored | 27.07th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 18.55th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +8.53rd of 32 |
| 4th of 326.08 | Yards per play | 5.867th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2416th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 25th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 140432nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321631 | Elo rating | 157311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 NE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.