Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing25/36, 284 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Samaje PerineRushing6 CAR, 31 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/28, 251 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing18 CAR, 80 YDS
- Dawson KnoxReceiving6 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:13Tee Higgins 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–39
- Q43:03Jackson Hawes 3 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)28–39
- Q45:25Christian Benford 63 Yd Interception Return (Matt Prater Kick)28–32
- Q47:33Josh Allen 40 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)28–25
- Q48:44Mike Gesicki 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–18
- Q39:20Dalton Kincaid 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)21–18
- Q23:18Chase Brown 10 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–11
- Q27:27Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Dawson Knox for Two-Point Conversion)14–11
- Q213:33Tee Higgins 21 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–3
- Q11:54Matt Prater 26 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:44Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:27Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Dawson Knox for Two-Point Conversion)CIN 14 – 11 BUF · BUF 33% → 58% +25BUF 33% → 58%+25 pts
- Q39:20Dalton Kincaid 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)CIN 21 – 18 BUF · BUF 26% → 52% +26BUF 26% → 52%+26 pts
- Q48:44Mike Gesicki 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 28 – 18 BUF · CIN 61% → 92% +31CIN 61% → 92%+31 pts
- Q47:33Josh Allen 40 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)CIN 28 – 25 BUF · BUF 6% → 37% +31BUF 6% → 37%+31 pts
- Q45:25Christian Benford 63 Yd Interception Return (Matt Prater Kick)CIN 28 – 32 BUF · BUF 32% → 84% +52BUF 32% → 84%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -6
- ML CIN +230 / BUF -285
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -6
- BUF 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 70.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -244
- CIN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 24.3 – 30.3 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +32 | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +148 Elo | BUF 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 70.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 28.15th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.2 | Points allowed | 21.613th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.8 | Margin | +6.56th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 6.024th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3820th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321474 | Elo rating | 16198th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.