Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing15/23, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing32 CAR, 144 YDS
- James Cook IIIReceiving3 REC, 33 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing10/21, 117 YDS
- Jaylen WarrenRushing10 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- Darnell WashingtonReceiving2 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:07Matt Prater 37 Yd Field Goal26–7
- Q414:08Josh Allen 8 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)23–7
- Q38:49Keon Coleman 1 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater PAT Failed)16–7
- Q314:44Christian Benford 17 Yd Fumble Recovery (Matt Prater Kick)10–7
- Q20:51Matt Prater 27 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q28:09Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:09Jaylen Warren 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)BUF 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 42% → 63% +22PIT 42% → 63%+22 pts
- Q20:51Matt Prater 27 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 7 PIT · BUF 33% → 44% +10BUF 33% → 44%+10 pts
- Q314:44Christian Benford 17 Yd Fumble Recovery (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 10 – 7 PIT · BUF 43% → 67% +24BUF 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q38:49Keon Coleman 1 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater PAT Failed)BUF 16 – 7 PIT · BUF 68% → 86% +18BUF 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q414:08Josh Allen 8 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 23 – 7 PIT · BUF 90% → 99% +8BUF 90% → 99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3
- ML BUF -170 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -1.5
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 55.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -152
- PIT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.8 – 20.8 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +14 | BUF: Josh Allen · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +40 Elo | BUF 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 24.910th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 23.920th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.4 | Margin | +1.014th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.12 | Yards per play | 5.1521st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3719th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–518th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 151212th of 32 |
| 9th of 321586 | Elo rating | 149620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.