New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing22/35, 294 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing18 CAR, 66 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving7 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe FlaccoPassing19/37, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing19 CAR, 107 YDS
- Andrei IosivasReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:51Andy Borregales 52 Yd Field Goal26–20
- Q44:40Mitchell Tinsley 17 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)23–20
- Q45:55Andy Borregales 19 Yd Field Goal23–13
- Q31:04Andy Borregales 45 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 63 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q20:28Andy Borregales 41 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q27:42Marcus Jones 33 Yd Interception Return (Andy Borregales Kick)14–10
- Q29:36Hunter Henry 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–10
- Q214:19Geno Stone 32 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)0–10
- Q16:36Evan McPherson 54 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:19Geno Stone 32 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)NE 0 – 10 CIN · CIN 35% → 55% +20CIN 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q29:36Hunter Henry 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 10 CIN · NE 42% → 63% +21NE 42% → 63%+21 pts
- Q27:42Marcus Jones 33 Yd Interception Return (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 10 CIN · NE 62% → 81% +18NE 62% → 81%+18 pts
- Q44:40Mitchell Tinsley 17 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Evan McPherson Kick)NE 23 – 20 CIN · CIN <1% → 19% +18CIN <1% → 19%+18 pts
- Q41:51Andy Borregales 52 Yd Field GoalNE 26 – 20 CIN · NE 88% → 99% +10NE 88% → 99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- NE -7.5
- ML NE -400 / CIN +300
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -5.5
- NE 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NE: Elo 69.3%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- NE -312
- CIN +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 29.0 – 21.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | −28 | NE: Drake Maye · CIN: Joe Flacco, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +142 Elo | NE 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 69.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 75.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 22.818th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.7 | Points allowed | 33.432nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+7.8 | Margin | −10.631st of 32 |
| 6th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 5.2319th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3432nd of 32 |
| 1st of 325–0 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321408 | Opponent Elo | 151313th of 32 |
| 13th of 321549 | Elo rating | 142024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.