New York Jets at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing15/26, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing11 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- John Metchie IIIReceiving3 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing25/34, 281 YDS, 1 TD
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing19 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving9 REC, 105 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:36Andy Borregales 26 Yd Field Goal14–27
- Q412:06Andy Borregales 44 Yd Field Goal14–24
- Q33:10John Metchie III 22 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)14–21
- Q37:46TreVeyon Henderson 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–21
- Q27:54TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)7–14
- Q214:16TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Andy Borregales Kick)7–7
- Q16:56Justin Fields 5 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:56Justin Fields 5 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 7 – 0 NE · NYJ 14% → 27% +13NYJ 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q214:16TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Andy Borregales Kick)NYJ 7 – 7 NE · NE 68% → 84% +16NE 68% → 84%+16 pts
- Q27:54TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NYJ 7 – 14 NE · NE 82% → 93% +11NE 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q37:46TreVeyon Henderson 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NYJ 7 – 21 NE · NE 92% → 98% +6NE 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q33:10John Metchie III 22 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 14 – 21 NE · NYJ 1% → 8% +6NYJ 1% → 8%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NE -12.5
- ML NYJ +700 / NE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -9
- NE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NE: Elo 78.8%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- NE -701
- NYJ +701 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 15.0 – 27.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +22 | NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +228 Elo | NE 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 78.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 87.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 26.58th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 19.26th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.1 | Margin | +7.36th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 5.877th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4419th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 141732nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321358 | Elo rating | 153615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 2–2 NE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.