Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing24/46, 261 YDS, 2 TD
- Chase BrownRushing15 CAR, 78 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving7 REC, 110 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing17/32, 246 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing10 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving5 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:06Evan McPherson 41 Yd Field Goal32–14
- Q49:25Evan McPherson 52 Yd Field Goal29–14
- Q30:15Andrei Iosivas 29 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)26–14
- Q33:59Keaton Mitchell 18 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)19–14
- Q37:22Tanner Hudson 14 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)19–7
- Q20:10Evan McPherson 33 Yd Field Goal12–7
- Q22:36Evan McPherson 24 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q211:24Evan McPherson 42 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q16:33Derrick Henry 28 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)3–7
- Q19:39Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:33Derrick Henry 28 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)CIN 3 – 7 BAL · BAL 69% → 84% +14BAL 69% → 84%+14 pts
- Q20:10Evan McPherson 33 Yd Field GoalCIN 12 – 7 BAL · CIN 36% → 46% +10CIN 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q37:22Tanner Hudson 14 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 19 – 7 BAL · CIN 52% → 78% +26CIN 52% → 78%+26 pts
- Q33:59Keaton Mitchell 18 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)CIN 19 – 14 BAL · BAL 18% → 45% +27BAL 18% → 45%+27 pts
- Q30:15Andrei Iosivas 29 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 26 – 14 BAL · CIN 60% → 87% +27CIN 60% → 87%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML CIN +325 / BAL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -10.5
- BAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 81.5%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -347
- CIN +347 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 22.5 – 30.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +26 | CIN: Joe Burrow · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +258 Elo | BAL 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 81.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 77.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 25.010th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3232.7 | Points allowed | 23.719th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.2 | Margin | +1.314th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 5.5512th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4720th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 10th of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 151611th of 32 |
| 24th of 321406 | Elo rating | 16355th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–4 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.