New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Tyrod TaylorPassing17/28, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 44 YDS
- Breece HallReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing13/23, 153 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing21 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:41Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q49:35Tyler Loop 35 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q414:41Nick Folk 42 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q33:33Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–17
- Q38:49Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–10
- Q21:35Tyler Loop 31 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q24:04John Metchie III 13 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:04John Metchie III 13 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)NYJ 7 – 0 BAL · NYJ 17% → 36% +19NYJ 17% → 36%+19 pts
- Q21:35Tyler Loop 31 Yd Field GoalNYJ 7 – 3 BAL · BAL 62% → 71% +9BAL 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q38:49Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)NYJ 7 – 10 BAL · BAL 65% → 86% +21BAL 65% → 86%+21 pts
- Q33:33Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)NYJ 7 – 17 BAL · BAL 85% → 97% +12BAL 85% → 97%+12 pts
- Q414:41Nick Folk 42 Yd Field GoalNYJ 10 – 17 BAL · NYJ 3% → 7% +4NYJ 3% → 7%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -14.5
- ML NYJ +800 / BAL -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -15.5
- BAL 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 90.3%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -853
- NYJ +853 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 15.0 – 29.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −39 | +28 | NYJ: Tyrod Taylor, usually Aaron Rodgers · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +387 Elo | BAL 90.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 92.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 90.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 89.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.9 | Points scored | 25.210th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 25.123rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.9 | Margin | +0.118th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.75 | Yards per play | 5.6910th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
| 21st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15289th of 32 |
| 30th of 321345 | Elo rating | 16307th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.