New York Giants at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing17/24, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing12 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Darius SlaytonReceiving2 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing24/31, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing11 CAR, 67 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving4 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:14Andy Borregales 23 Yd Field Goal15–33
- Q414:54Devin Singletary 22 Yd Rush (Jaxson Dart Pass to Darius Slayton for Two-Point Conversion)15–30
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 28 Yd Field Goal7–30
- Q21:48Andy Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal7–27
- Q23:29Kyle Williams 33 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–24
- Q212:46Darius Slayton 30 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–17
- Q11:00Kayshon Boutte 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)0–17
- Q15:17Marcus Jones 94 Yd Punt Return (Andy Borregales Kick)0–10
- Q19:14Andy Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:14Andy Borregales 22 Yd Field GoalNYG 0 – 3 NE · NE 75% → 81% +6NE 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q15:17Marcus Jones 94 Yd Punt Return (Andy Borregales Kick)NYG 0 – 10 NE · NE 80% → 91% +11NE 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q11:00Kayshon Boutte 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NYG 0 – 17 NE · NE 91% → 97% +6NE 91% → 97%+6 pts
- Q212:46Darius Slayton 30 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Younghoe Koo Kick)NYG 7 – 17 NE · NYG 3% → 9% +6NYG 3% → 9%+6 pts
- Q23:29Kyle Williams 33 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NYG 7 – 24 NE · NE 91% → 97% +6NE 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- NE -7
- ML NYG +285 / NE -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -11.5
- NE 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- NE: Elo 83.6%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- NE -313
- NYG +313 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.8 – 26.8 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −5 | +21 | NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +282 Elo | NE 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 83.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 75.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3222.0 | Points scored | 26.57th of 32 |
| 30th of 3227.8 | Points allowed | 18.85th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.8 | Margin | +7.74th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 5.837th of 32 |
| 29th of 326.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3016th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–7 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 1st of 321563 | Opponent Elo | 140932nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321342 | Elo rating | 156312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.