New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing31/44, 380 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing8 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving9 REC, 138 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing7/10, 101 YDS
- Derrick HenryRushing18 CAR, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:07Rhamondre Stevenson 21 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)28–24
- Q49:01Kyle Williams 37 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)21–24
- Q412:50Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)13–24
- Q34:35Zay Flowers 18 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)13–17
- Q37:43Andy Borregales 41 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q21:03Tyler Loop 36 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q25:39Andy Borregales 45 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q211:17Hunter Henry 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–7
- Q112:21Derrick Henry 21 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:17Hunter Henry 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 7 BAL · NE 20% → 38% +18NE 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q34:35Zay Flowers 18 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)NE 13 – 17 BAL · BAL 45% → 74% +29BAL 45% → 74%+29 pts
- Q412:50Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)NE 13 – 24 BAL · BAL 76% → 95% +19BAL 76% → 95%+19 pts
- Q49:01Kyle Williams 37 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)NE 21 – 24 BAL · NE 3% → 27% +24NE 3% → 27%+24 pts
- Q42:07Rhamondre Stevenson 21 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 28 – 24 BAL · NE 14% → 90% +76NE 14% → 90%+76 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3.5
- ML NE +170 / BAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -178
- NE +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 22.0 – 25.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | +22 | NE: Drake Maye · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 23.915th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 22.916th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+7.6 | Margin | +1.116th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.698th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3516th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–0 | Road vs home | 3–521st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321424 | Opponent Elo | 150813th of 32 |
| 16th of 321553 | Elo rating | 157014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.