Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing23/34, 284 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenny GainwellRushing4 CAR, 15 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving7 REC, 148 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing19/35, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing25 CAR, 94 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving8 REC, 124 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:10Tyler Loop 36 Yd Field Goal27–22
- Q413:43Tyler Loop 28 Yd Field Goal27–19
- Q33:30Jaylen Warren 38 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)27–16
- Q37:35Isaiah Likely 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)20–16
- Q310:57Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field Goal20–9
- Q20:16Lamar Jackson 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop PAT Failed)17–9
- Q26:05Kenneth Gainwell 6 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)17–3
- Q210:39Chris Boswell 23 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q17:13Aaron Rodgers 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–3
- Q110:58Tyler Loop 36 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:13Aaron Rodgers 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 3 BAL · PIT 24% → 41% +17PIT 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q26:05Kenneth Gainwell 6 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 3 BAL · PIT 56% → 76% +20PIT 56% → 76%+20 pts
- Q20:16Lamar Jackson 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop PAT Failed)PIT 17 – 9 BAL · BAL 20% → 37% +18BAL 20% → 37%+18 pts
- Q37:35Isaiah Likely 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)PIT 20 – 16 BAL · BAL 21% → 47% +26BAL 21% → 47%+26 pts
- Q33:30Jaylen Warren 38 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 27 – 16 BAL · PIT 56% → 83% +27PIT 56% → 83%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -5.5
- ML PIT +225 / BAL -278
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6
- BAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 70.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -239
- PIT +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.0 – 24.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +24 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +151 Elo | BAL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 70.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 70.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 24.112th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 24.421st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.316th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.07 | Yards per play | 5.5911th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4021st of 32 |
| 18th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–518th of 32 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
| 7th of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 151910th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321463 | Elo rating | 156712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.