Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing8/12, 150 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 100 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving3 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing25/39, 225 YDS, 2 INT
- Chase BrownRushing13 CAR, 53 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 132 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:38Alohi Gilman 84 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Loop Kick)24–0
- Q39:05Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q20:23Zay Flowers 28 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)14–0
- Q24:35Rasheen Ali 30 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:35Rasheen Ali 30 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 0 CIN · BAL 57% → 77% +21BAL 57% → 77%+21 pts
- Q20:23Zay Flowers 28 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 14 – 0 CIN · BAL 78% → 92% +14BAL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- Q39:05Tyler Loop 27 Yd Field GoalBAL 17 – 0 CIN · BAL 94% → 97% +3BAL 94% → 97%+3 pts
- Q47:38Alohi Gilman 84 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 24 – 0 CIN · BAL >99% → >99% +0BAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML BAL -162 / CIN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -1
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -143
- CIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 27.0 – 24.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | +32 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +27 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.9 | Points scored | 24.212th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 31.832nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −7.629th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.2220th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.45 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3232nd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15412nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321533 | Elo rating | 146222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–9 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–1 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.