Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing13/21, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WrightRushing24 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Brady CookPassing14/30, 163 YDS, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing14 CAR, 43 YDS
- Mason TaylorReceiving5 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:24Riley Patterson 53 Yd Field Goal34–10
- Q46:18Ollie Gordon II 7 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)31–10
- Q412:13Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q21:56Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q10:20Isaiah Williams 78 Yd Punt Return (Nick Folk Kick)21–7
- Q13:39Jaylen Wright 2 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)21–0
- Q18:48De'Von Achane 13 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)14–0
- Q112:46Jaylen Waddle 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:46Jaylen Waddle 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 7 – 0 NYJ · MIA 58% → 74% +16MIA 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q18:48De'Von Achane 13 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 14 – 0 NYJ · MIA 74% → 87% +12MIA 74% → 87%+12 pts
- Q13:39Jaylen Wright 2 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 21 – 0 NYJ · MIA 88% → 95% +7MIA 88% → 95%+7 pts
- Q10:20Isaiah Williams 78 Yd Punt Return (Nick Folk Kick)MIA 21 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 5% → 12% +7NYJ 5% → 12%+7 pts
- Q21:56Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field GoalMIA 24 – 7 NYJ · MIA 91% → 95% +3MIA 91% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML MIA -148 / NYJ +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4.5
- MIA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 66.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -138
- NYJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.0 – 19.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | −28 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · NYJ: Tyrod Taylor, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +117 Elo | MIA 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 64.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.6 | Points scored | 20.525th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 26.327th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.3 | Margin | −5.826th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 4.7228th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2616th of 32 |
| 18th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
| 26th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 150219th of 32 |
| 20th of 321476 | Elo rating | 136228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 NYJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.