New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing26/38, 239 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Devin NealRushing14 CAR, 47 YDS
- Devaughn VeleReceiving8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing12/23, 157 YDS, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing22 CAR, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- Darren WallerReceiving2 REC, 47 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:17Devaughn Vele 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed. Minkah Fitzpatrick Interception Return)17–21
- Q46:08Charlie Smyth 56 Yd Field Goal11–19
- Q49:39Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal8–19
- Q310:40Chris Olave 17 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Tyler Shough Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 48 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q26:07Riley Patterson 25 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q214:09Riley Patterson 39 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q111:19De'Von Achane 29 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19De'Von Achane 29 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)NO 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 70% → 83% +14MIA 70% → 83%+14 pts
- Q214:09Riley Patterson 39 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 10 MIA · MIA 83% → 88% +5MIA 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q26:07Riley Patterson 25 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 13 MIA · MIA 89% → 93% +4MIA 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q310:40Chris Olave 17 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Tyler Shough Run for Two-Point Conversion)NO 8 – 16 MIA · NO 3% → 13% +10NO 3% → 13%+10 pts
- Q49:39Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field GoalNO 8 – 19 MIA · MIA 93% → 97% +4MIA 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML NO +215 / MIA -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8.5
- MIA 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 77.7%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -235
- NO +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 18.0 – 23.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −65 | +12 | NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +217 Elo | MIA 77.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 74.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 70.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.0 | Points scored | 20.524th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 24.521st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.9 | Margin | −3.923rd of 32 |
| 29th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.3916th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8727th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 148424th of 32 |
| 28th of 321365 | Elo rating | 146822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.