Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing16/23, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing14 CAR, 70 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing30/43, 243 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyler ShoughRushing7 CAR, 22 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving9 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:04Darnell Mooney 49 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Bijan Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–10
- Q412:13Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q20:00Zane Gonzalez 54 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q21:56Zane Gonzalez 41 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q26:41Justin Reid 49 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)10–7
- Q211:31David Sills V 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)10–0
- Q110:42Zane Gonzalez 56 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:31David Sills V 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 10 – 0 NO · ATL 57% → 76% +19ATL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q26:41Justin Reid 49 Yd Interception Return (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 10 – 7 NO · NO 23% → 42% +20NO 23% → 42%+20 pts
- Q21:56Zane Gonzalez 41 Yd Field GoalATL 13 – 7 NO · ATL 58% → 68% +10ATL 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q412:13Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field GoalATL 16 – 10 NO · NO 11% → 21% +10NO 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q411:04Darnell Mooney 49 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Bijan Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)ATL 24 – 10 NO · ATL 80% → 98% +18ATL 80% → 98%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML ATL +105 / NO -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- NO 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NO: Elo 45.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 19.5 – 21.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | −67 | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Michael Penix Jr. · NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +33 Elo | ATL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 52.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.5 | Points scored | 15.530th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 25.022nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.4 | Margin | −9.529th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 4.8328th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 151912th of 32 |
| 28th of 321372 | Elo rating | 139526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.