Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing21/33, 234 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing23 CAR, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving7 REC, 82 YDS
Jets- Tyrod TaylorPassing19/33, 172 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallRushing19 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Adonai MitchellReceiving8 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Nick Folk 56 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q41:53Tyrod Taylor 10 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)24–24
- Q48:46David Sills V 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)24–17
- Q413:23Nick Folk 32 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q30:00Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q38:58Adonai Mitchell 52 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)14–14
- Q39:36Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–7
- Q20:09Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q213:58Breece Hall 2 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:09Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 7 – 7 NYJ · ATL 32% → 56% +24ATL 32% → 56%+24 pts
- Q38:58Adonai Mitchell 52 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 14 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 20% → 44% +24NYJ 20% → 44%+24 pts
- Q48:46David Sills V 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 24 – 17 NYJ · ATL 53% → 89% +36ATL 53% → 89%+36 pts
- Q41:53Tyrod Taylor 10 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 24 – 24 NYJ · NYJ <1% → 48% +48NYJ <1% → 48%+48 pts
- Q40:00Nick Folk 56 Yd Field GoalATL 24 – 27 NYJ · NYJ 46% → 100% +54NYJ 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -155 / NYJ +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -144
- NYJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.5 – 18.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | −34 | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Michael Penix Jr. · NYJ: Tyrod Taylor, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +86 Elo | ATL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3219.9 | Points scored | 19.926th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 26.527th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.7 | Margin | −6.528th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.45 | Yards per play | 4.7628th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2113th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 151016th of 32 |
| 25th of 321402 | Elo rating | 134030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.