Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Quinn EwersPassing16/23, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WrightRushing13 CAR, 23 YDS
- Theo Wease Jr.Receiving3 REC, 44 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing14/18, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing7 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- Hunter HenryReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:39TreVeyon Henderson 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)10–38
- Q32:18Rhamondre Stevenson 35 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)10–31
- Q37:30Rhamondre Stevenson 15 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)10–24
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 59 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q20:28Riley Patterson 52 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q210:14Malik Washington 2 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)7–14
- Q10:55Rhamondre Stevenson 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–14
- Q113:14TreVeyon Henderson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:14TreVeyon Henderson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)MIA 0 – 7 NE · NE 89% → 95% +6NE 89% → 95%+6 pts
- Q210:14Malik Washington 2 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 7 – 14 NE · MIA 2% → 6% +4MIA 2% → 6%+4 pts
- Q20:28Riley Patterson 52 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 14 NE · MIA 7% → 11% +4MIA 7% → 11%+4 pts
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 59 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 17 NE · NE 89% → 93% +4NE 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q37:30Rhamondre Stevenson 15 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)MIA 10 – 24 NE · NE 93% → 99% +6NE 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NE -14.5
- ML MIA +800 / NE -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -11.5
- NE 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NE: Elo 83.5%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- NE -807
- MIA +807 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 14.5 – 29.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −102 | +23 | MIA: Quinn Ewers, usually Tua Tagovailoa · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +282 Elo | NE 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 83.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 83.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 89.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.1 | Points scored | 28.34th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 19.45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.1 | Margin | +8.93rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.51 | Yards per play | 6.062nd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2713th of 32 |
| 13th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 28th of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 143032nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321464 | Elo rating | 158611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 NE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.