Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing33/44, 346 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing9 CAR, 19 YDS
- Jalen McMillanReceiving7 REC, 114 YDS
Dolphins- Quinn EwersPassing14/22, 172 YDS, 2 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing18 CAR, 83 YDS
- Theo Wease Jr.Receiving1 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:50Mike Evans 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–20
- Q414:15Riley Patterson 31 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q33:49Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q21:43Greg Dulcich 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)7–17
- Q28:18Riley Patterson 29 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q14:29Theo Wease Jr. 63 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q15:27Chris Godwin Jr. 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:27Chris Godwin Jr. 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 0 MIA · TB 68% → 83% +15TB 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q14:29Theo Wease Jr. 63 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)TB 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 17% → 33% +15MIA 17% → 33%+15 pts
- Q21:43Greg Dulcich 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Riley Patterson Kick)TB 7 – 17 MIA · MIA 46% → 69% +23MIA 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q33:49Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field GoalTB 10 – 17 MIA · TB 20% → 31% +11TB 20% → 31%+11 pts
- Q414:15Riley Patterson 31 Yd Field GoalTB 10 – 20 MIA · MIA 75% → 85% +11MIA 75% → 85%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -5.5
- ML TB -265 / MIA +215
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -3.5
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- TB: Elo 61.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -223
- MIA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 25.0 – 19.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −115 | TB: Baker Mayfield · MIA: Quinn Ewers, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +82 Elo | TB 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3223.1 | Points scored | 21.122nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.1 | Points allowed | 24.622nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.0 | Margin | −3.522nd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.5112th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6325th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 16th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
| 8th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 147628th of 32 |
| 20th of 321445 | Elo rating | 144221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.