Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing30/44, 373 YDS, 3 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving11 REC, 166 YDS, 3 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing19/34, 277 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing16 CAR, 60 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 132 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Zane Gonzalez 43 Yd Field Goal29–28
- Q43:34Kyle Pitts Sr. 7 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q49:37Bijan Robinson 6 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–28
- Q413:34Chris Godwin Jr. 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Chris Godwin Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q36:22Devin Culp 6 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–20
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q20:38Kyle Pitts Sr. 17 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–10
- Q22:04Chase McLaughlin 49 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q212:11Kyle Pitts Sr. 8 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q11:38Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:11Kyle Pitts Sr. 8 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 7 – 7 TB · ATL 16% → 32% +16ATL 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q20:38Kyle Pitts Sr. 17 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 14 – 10 TB · ATL 26% → 49% +23ATL 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q36:22Devin Culp 6 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ATL 14 – 20 TB · TB 59% → 83% +24TB 59% → 83%+24 pts
- Q43:34Kyle Pitts Sr. 7 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ATL 26 – 28 TB · ATL 1% → 26% +24ATL 1% → 26%+24 pts
- Q40:00Zane Gonzalez 43 Yd Field GoalATL 29 – 28 TB · ATL 0% → 100% +100ATL 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- TB -6
- ML ATL +230 / TB -285
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -5
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TB: Elo 67.3%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -241
- ATL +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 18.8 – 24.8 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | — | ATL: Kirk Cousins · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +126 Elo | TB 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.4 | Points scored | 23.017th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 25.023rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.7 | Margin | −2.020th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 5.0125th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6525th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 20th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15287th of 32 |
| 27th of 321364 | Elo rating | 147621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.