Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing20/30, 249 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing7 CAR, 46 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving7 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing15/30, 162 YDS, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing20 CAR, 86 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving6 REC, 90 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:27Jaxon Smith-Njigba 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)37–9
- Q412:13Cooper Kupp 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)30–9
- Q414:57Zane Gonzalez 27 Yd Field Goal23–9
- Q32:39Jason Myers 37 Yd Field Goal23–6
- Q36:16Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)20–6
- Q314:48Rashid Shaheed 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jason Myers Kick)13–6
- Q20:00Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q21:01Zane Gonzalez 43 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q10:49Jason Myers 22 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:14Zane Gonzalez 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:49Jason Myers 22 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 3 ATL · SEA 65% → 73% +8SEA 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q21:01Zane Gonzalez 43 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 6 ATL · ATL 31% → 41% +10ATL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q20:00Jason Myers 48 Yd Field GoalSEA 6 – 6 ATL · SEA 59% → 69% +10SEA 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q314:48Rashid Shaheed 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 13 – 6 ATL · SEA 69% → 87% +18SEA 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q36:16Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 20 – 6 ATL · SEA 87% → 97% +10SEA 87% → 97%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7
- ML SEA -360 / ATL +285
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -9.5
- SEA 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 79.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -307
- ATL +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 25.8 – 18.8 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +27 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +235 Elo | SEA 79.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 78.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 75.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.2 | Points scored | 20.326th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.1 | Points allowed | 23.016th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.1 | Margin | −2.820th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.03 | Yards per play | 5.4813th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.109th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Opponent Elo | 148223rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321647 | Elo rating | 137926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–3 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.