New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing13/20, 144 YDS, 1 INT
- Devin NealRushing19 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Devaughn VeleReceiving3 REC, 40 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing14/30, 122 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing15 CAR, 55 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving5 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:54Chase McLaughlin 37 Yd Field Goal24–20
- Q48:26Tyler Shough 13 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)24–17
- Q31:32Charlie Smyth 30 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q37:37Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–17
- Q311:27Tyler Shough 34 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)14–10
- Q29:11Chase McLaughlin 41 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q17:57Bucky Irving 24 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q112:24Devin Neal 3 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:57Bucky Irving 24 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 7 – 7 TB · TB 60% → 77% +16TB 60% → 77%+16 pts
- Q311:27Tyler Shough 34 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 14 – 10 TB · NO 21% → 45% +23NO 21% → 45%+23 pts
- Q37:37Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NO 14 – 17 TB · TB 53% → 78% +26TB 53% → 78%+26 pts
- Q48:26Tyler Shough 13 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 24 – 17 TB · NO 39% → 81% +43NO 39% → 81%+43 pts
- Q44:54Chase McLaughlin 37 Yd Field GoalNO 24 – 20 TB · TB 9% → 25% +16TB 9% → 25%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- TB -7.5
- ML NO +330 / TB -425
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -10
- TB 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 80.9%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -353
- NO +353 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 17.0 – 24.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −59 | — | NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +251 Elo | TB 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 79.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 77.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.2 | Points scored | 23.317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 25.123rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.4 | Margin | −1.819th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.67 | Yards per play | 5.0723rd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7226th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–518th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–217th of 32 |
| 15th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 15364th of 32 |
| 29th of 321357 | Elo rating | 151317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.