Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing25/32, 309 YDS, 4 TD
- Chase BrownRushing12 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving9 REC, 109 YDS
Dolphins- Quinn EwersPassing20/30, 260 YDS, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing15 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving5 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:43Jaylen Wright 3 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)45–21
- Q413:32Mike Gesicki 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)45–14
- Q32:25Chase Brown 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)38–14
- Q38:32Chase Brown 12 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)31–14
- Q39:43Chase Brown 9 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)24–14
- Q21:24Samaje Perine 4 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)17–14
- Q22:24Malik Washington 9 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)10–14
- Q26:01Evan McPherson 45 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q12:25De'Von Achane 48 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q13:57Tee Higgins 9 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:57Tee Higgins 9 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 MIA · CIN 63% → 79% +16CIN 63% → 79%+16 pts
- Q12:25De'Von Achane 48 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)CIN 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 21% → 37% +17MIA 21% → 37%+17 pts
- Q22:24Malik Washington 9 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)CIN 10 – 14 MIA · MIA 30% → 53% +23MIA 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q21:24Samaje Perine 4 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 14 MIA · CIN 47% → 70% +23CIN 47% → 70%+23 pts
- Q39:43Chase Brown 9 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 24 – 14 MIA · CIN 70% → 89% +19CIN 70% → 89%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML CIN -205 / MIA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -2.5
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 59.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -179
- MIA +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 26.0 – 22.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | −126 | CIN: Joe Burrow · MIA: Quinn Ewers, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +68 Elo | CIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 61.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 64.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 21.123rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.2 | Points allowed | 23.116th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.8 | Margin | −2.021st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.14 | Yards per play | 5.4214th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5621st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 1st of 321551 | Opponent Elo | 147128th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321425 | Elo rating | 147319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.