Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing22/28, 253 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing12 CAR, 60 YDS
- De'Von AchaneReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing23/27, 224 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenny GainwellRushing13 CAR, 80 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:32Darren Waller 13 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–28
- Q49:41Darren Waller 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–28
- Q413:01Jonnu Smith 14 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)3–28
- Q34:58DK Metcalf 28 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)3–21
- Q311:20Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)3–14
- Q20:17Connor Heyward 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)3–7
- Q25:11Riley Patterson 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:11Riley Patterson 54 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 0 PIT · MIA 41% → 51% +10MIA 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q20:17Connor Heyward 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)MIA 3 – 7 PIT · PIT 48% → 71% +24PIT 48% → 71%+24 pts
- Q311:20Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)MIA 3 – 14 PIT · PIT 72% → 89% +17PIT 72% → 89%+17 pts
- Q34:58DK Metcalf 28 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)MIA 3 – 21 PIT · PIT 91% → 98% +7PIT 91% → 98%+7 pts
- Q413:01Jonnu Smith 14 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)MIA 3 – 28 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3
- ML MIA +154 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -1.5
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.6%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 20.3 – 23.3 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +19 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +39 Elo | PIT 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.6 | Points scored | 23.714th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 23.920th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.39 | Yards per play | 5.1521st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3517th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 28th of 321468 | Opponent Elo | 15227th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.