Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/26, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing19 CAR, 71 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving1 REC, 40 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing21/32, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing9 CAR, 29 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:20Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q411:24Chase McLaughlin 50 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q30:08Ja'Tavion Sanders 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–20
- Q36:41Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–13
- Q20:07Tetairoa McMillan 22 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–13
- Q22:06Ryan Fitzgerald 41 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q28:09Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q14:01Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–3
- Q110:30Ryan Fitzgerald 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:01Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 3 CAR · TB 49% → 68% +19TB 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q20:07Tetairoa McMillan 22 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)TB 10 – 13 CAR · CAR 31% → 55% +24CAR 31% → 55%+24 pts
- Q36:41Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 13 CAR · TB 42% → 70% +28TB 42% → 70%+28 pts
- Q30:08Ja'Tavion Sanders 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)TB 17 – 20 CAR · CAR 27% → 61% +33CAR 27% → 61%+33 pts
- Q42:20Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field GoalTB 20 – 23 CAR · CAR 48% → 82% +34CAR 48% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3
- ML TB -155 / CAR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -1
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -137
- CAR +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 23.8 – 20.8 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | TB: Baker Mayfield · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 18.928th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 22.614th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.9 | Margin | −3.822nd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.05 | Yards per play | 5.0525th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6425th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–213th of 32 |
| 10th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 32 |
| 20th of 321463 | Elo rating | 140224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–0 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.