Houston Texans at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/47, 212 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- Woody MarksRushing14 CAR, 17 YDS
- Jayden HigginsReceiving6 REC, 59 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing16/27, 179 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing16 CAR, 70 YDS
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving3 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:58Kayshon Boutte 32 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)16–28
- Q31:32Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal16–21
- Q39:45Ka'imi Fairbairn 25 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q23:12Stefon Diggs 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)10–21
- Q210:31Marcus Jones 26 Yd Interception Return (Andy Borregales Kick)10–14
- Q212:51Christian Kirk 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–7
- Q15:26Ka'imi Fairbairn 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:35DeMario Douglas 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35DeMario Douglas 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)HOU 0 – 7 NE · NE 60% → 76% +16NE 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q212:51Christian Kirk 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 7 NE · HOU 30% → 50% +20HOU 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q210:31Marcus Jones 26 Yd Interception Return (Andy Borregales Kick)HOU 10 – 14 NE · NE 50% → 70% +20NE 50% → 70%+20 pts
- Q23:12Stefon Diggs 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)HOU 10 – 21 NE · NE 70% → 87% +17NE 70% → 87%+17 pts
- Q412:58Kayshon Boutte 32 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)HOU 16 – 28 NE · NE 79% → 96% +17NE 79% → 96%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3
- ML HOU +150 / NE -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- NE 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.2 pts
- NE: Elo 45.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NE -153
- HOU +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 18.8 – 21.8 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1699 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +22 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 60.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 28.82nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.4 | Points allowed | 18.84th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +10.03rd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 6.182nd of 32 |
| 5th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1612th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 143032nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321699 | Elo rating | 16237th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 9–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.