Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Riley LeonardPassing21/34, 270 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- DJ GiddensRushing8 CAR, 30 YDS
- Alec PierceReceiving4 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing14/23, 169 YDS, 1 TD
- British BrooksRushing13 CAR, 63 YDS
- Xavier HutchinsonReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Tommy Togiai 17 Yd Fumble Recovery30–38
- Q40:12Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal30–32
- Q42:39Blake Grupe 22 Yd Field Goal30–29
- Q411:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field Goal27–29
- Q31:42Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal27–26
- Q36:53Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal24–26
- Q313:05Riley Leonard 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)24–23
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q21:25Alec Pierce 8 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Blake Grupe Kick)17–20
- Q28:32C.J. Stroud 2 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–20
- Q29:34Jayden Higgins 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–13
- Q10:34Blake Grupe 50 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q16:36Ka'imi Fairbairn 48 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q110:36Alec Pierce 66 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Blake Grupe Kick)7–3
- Q112:05Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:34Jayden Higgins 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)IND 10 – 13 HOU · HOU 66% → 83% +17HOU 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q313:05Riley Leonard 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)IND 24 – 23 HOU · IND 12% → 31% +18IND 12% → 31%+18 pts
- Q411:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field GoalIND 27 – 29 HOU · HOU 59% → 75% +16HOU 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q42:39Blake Grupe 22 Yd Field GoalIND 30 – 29 HOU · IND 22% → 55% +33IND 22% → 55%+33 pts
- Q40:12Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field GoalIND 30 – 32 HOU · HOU 15% → 99% +84HOU 15% → 99%+84 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML IND +390 / HOU -520
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -13.5
- HOU 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 87.3%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -427
- IND +427 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 14.0 – 23.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1666 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −81 | +15 | IND: Riley Leonard, usually Daniel Jones · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +335 Elo | HOU 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 86.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 81.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 22.916th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 16.61st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.9 | Margin | +6.35th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.1025th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 4.734th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 151013th of 32 |
| 20th of 321463 | Elo rating | 16662nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.