Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/37, 263 YDS, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing17 CAR, 76 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving8 REC, 115 YDS
Colts- Philip RiversPassing17/30, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler WarrenReceiving5 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Cam Little 53 Yd Field Goal23–17
- Q46:58Cam Little 42 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q31:25Cam Little 34 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q35:58Mo Alie-Cox 5 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)14–17
- Q37:26Trevor Lawrence 6 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)14–10
- Q25:38Trevor Lawrence 4 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–10
- Q212:49Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)0–10
- Q111:14Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:49Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)JAX 0 – 10 IND · IND 44% → 64% +20IND 44% → 64%+20 pts
- Q25:38Trevor Lawrence 4 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 10 IND · JAX 32% → 54% +22JAX 32% → 54%+22 pts
- Q37:26Trevor Lawrence 6 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 14 – 10 IND · JAX 49% → 75% +27JAX 49% → 75%+27 pts
- Q35:58Mo Alie-Cox 5 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)JAX 14 – 17 IND · IND 24% → 52% +28IND 24% → 52%+28 pts
- Q46:58Cam Little 42 Yd Field GoalJAX 20 – 17 IND · JAX 56% → 76% +20JAX 56% → 76%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -4.5
- ML JAX -230 / IND +190
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -7
- JAX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- JAX: Elo 73.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- JAX -207
- IND +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 26.5 – 22.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | −68 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · IND: Philip Rivers, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +181 Elo | JAX 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 70.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 67.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 23.418th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+6.5 | Margin | +4.59th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.22 | Yards per play | 5.927th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.13 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3316th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150417th of 32 |
| 8th of 321614 | Elo rating | 147418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 4–1 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.