San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing25/34, 295 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing21 CAR, 117 YDS
- George KittleReceiving7 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Philip RiversPassing23/35, 277 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing16 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:26Dee Winters 74 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)48–27
- Q47:37Christian McCaffrey 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)41–27
- Q412:41Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)34–27
- Q34:02Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field Goal34–20
- Q38:16Blake Grupe 51 Yd Field Goal31–20
- Q310:58Jauan Jennings 3 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)31–17
- Q20:17Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q21:51Eddy Pineiro 25 Yd Field Goal24–14
- Q29:36George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–14
- Q214:15Alec Pierce 16 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)14–14
- Q14:33Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–7
- Q17:14Demarcus Robinson 22 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q110:31Alec Pierce 20 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Alec Pierce 20 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)SF 0 – 7 IND · IND 34% → 51% +18IND 34% → 51%+18 pts
- Q17:14Demarcus Robinson 22 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 7 – 7 IND · SF 48% → 66% +18SF 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q14:33Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 14 – 7 IND · SF 65% → 81% +16SF 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q214:15Alec Pierce 16 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)SF 14 – 14 IND · IND 19% → 35% +17IND 19% → 35%+17 pts
- Q29:36George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 21 – 14 IND · SF 64% → 82% +18SF 64% → 82%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -4.5
- ML SF -225 / IND +185
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -7
- SF 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- SF: Elo 73.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -203
- IND +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 25.5 – 21.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +40 | −82 | SF: Brock Purdy · IND: Philip Rivers, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +180 Elo | SF 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 71.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 67.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 28.06th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 21.613th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+3.6 | Margin | +6.46th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 5.967th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2414th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 32 |
| 28th of 321474 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 32 |
| 10th of 321586 | Elo rating | 149318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.