Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Philip RiversPassing18/27, 120 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing25 CAR, 87 YDS
- Ameer AbdullahReceiving5 REC, 32 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing22/36, 271 YDS
- Zach CharbonnetRushing8 CAR, 31 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving7 REC, 113 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Jason Myers 56 Yd Field Goal16–18
- Q40:47Blake Grupe 60 Yd Field Goal16–15
- Q42:27Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal13–15
- Q413:24Jason Myers 32 Yd Field Goal13–12
- Q39:49Jason Myers 46 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q20:00Jason Myers 52 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q21:33Josh Downs 8 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)13–3
- Q28:26Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q10:50Jason Myers 47 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q13:40Blake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:33Josh Downs 8 Yd pass from Philip Rivers (Blake Grupe Kick)IND 13 – 3 SEA · IND 29% → 52% +23IND 29% → 52%+23 pts
- Q413:24Jason Myers 32 Yd Field GoalIND 13 – 12 SEA · SEA 50% → 65% +16SEA 50% → 65%+16 pts
- Q42:27Jason Myers 30 Yd Field GoalIND 13 – 15 SEA · SEA 47% → 80% +34SEA 47% → 80%+34 pts
- Q40:47Blake Grupe 60 Yd Field GoalIND 16 – 15 SEA · IND 11% → 66% +55IND 11% → 66%+55 pts
- Q40:18Jason Myers 56 Yd Field GoalIND 16 – 18 SEA · SEA 21% → 97% +76SEA 21% → 97%+76 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -12.5
- ML IND +625 / SEA -950
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -13
- SEA 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 86.3%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -654
- IND +654 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 14.5 – 27.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1663 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −86 | +31 | IND: Philip Rivers, usually Daniel Jones · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +320 Elo | SEA 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 84.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 86.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3228.9 | Points scored | 29.82nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 17.42nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+7.0 | Margin | +12.41st of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.12 | Yards per play | 6.054th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 4.542nd of 32 |
| 17th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–213th of 32 |
| 27th of 321474 | Opponent Elo | 147328th of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Elo rating | 16633rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 10–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.