Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing21/32, 250 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing19 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian KirkReceiving8 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing17/33, 146 YDS, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing12 CAR, 43 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving2 REC, 42 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:39Calen Bullock 50 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT Failed)30–6
- Q43:38Woody Marks 13 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–6
- Q411:23Sheldon Rankins 33 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–6
- Q413:07Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q21:57Chris Boswell 35 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q28:28Christian Kirk 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–3
- Q16:02Chris Boswell 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:02Chris Boswell 32 Yd Field GoalHOU 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 42% → 50% +8PIT 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q28:28Christian Kirk 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 3 PIT · HOU 48% → 69% +21HOU 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q21:57Chris Boswell 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 7 – 6 PIT · PIT 31% → 40% +10PIT 31% → 40%+10 pts
- Q413:07Ka'imi Fairbairn 51 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 6 PIT · HOU 59% → 74% +15HOU 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q411:23Sheldon Rankins 33 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 17 – 6 PIT · HOU 75% → 95% +20HOU 75% → 95%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3
- ML HOU -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -143
- PIT +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.8 – 17.8 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1672 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +19 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +104 Elo | HOU 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 23.415th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217.4 | Points allowed | 22.817th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +0.618th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4619th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15254th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321672 | Elo rating | 152716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.