Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing11/18, 238 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing20 CAR, 126 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving4 REC, 138 YDS, 2 TD
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing31/47, 294 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 66 YDS
- Kenny GainwellReceiving8 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:55Calvin Austin III 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell PAT blocked)24–26
- Q42:20Zay Flowers 64 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)24–20
- Q43:49Kenneth Gainwell 2 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)17–20
- Q48:42Zay Flowers 50 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)17–13
- Q34:28Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q38:23Connor Heyward 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)10–10
- Q28:52Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q213:33Tyler Loop 40 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:54Devontez Walker 38 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:23Connor Heyward 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)BAL 10 – 10 PIT · PIT 18% → 41% +23PIT 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q48:42Zay Flowers 50 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 17 – 13 PIT · BAL 36% → 79% +43BAL 36% → 79%+43 pts
- Q43:49Kenneth Gainwell 2 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)BAL 17 – 20 PIT · PIT 14% → 74% +61PIT 14% → 74%+61 pts
- Q42:20Zay Flowers 64 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 24 – 20 PIT · BAL 19% → 91% +72BAL 19% → 91%+72 pts
- Q40:55Calvin Austin III 26 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell PAT blocked)BAL 24 – 26 PIT · PIT 2% → 83% +82PIT 2% → 83%+82 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -4.5
- ML BAL -205 / PIT +170
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2.5
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -178
- PIT +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 23.0 – 18.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +29 | +18 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +65 Elo | BAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 23.215th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 22.717th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.518th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 5.2517th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3718th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 5th of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 15214th of 32 |
| 8th of 321600 | Elo rating | 151116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.