Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing16/20, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing36 CAR, 216 YDS, 4 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving4 REC, 30 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Malik WillisPassing18/21, 288 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik WillisRushing9 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving5 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Derrick Henry 25 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)41–24
- Q410:10Zay Flowers 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)34–24
- Q32:02Malik Willis 11 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)27–24
- Q39:10Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field Goal27–17
- Q20:10Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)27–14
- Q21:24Malik Willis 22 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)20–14
- Q23:36Tyler Loop 34 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q27:10Tyler Loop 22 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q213:13Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)14–7
- Q15:44Christian Watson 39 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brandon McManus Kick)7–7
- Q16:55Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:13Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 14 – 7 GB · BAL 44% → 64% +20BAL 44% → 64%+20 pts
- Q21:24Malik Willis 22 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)BAL 20 – 14 GB · GB 16% → 35% +19GB 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q20:10Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 27 – 14 GB · BAL 66% → 85% +19BAL 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q32:02Malik Willis 11 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)BAL 27 – 24 GB · GB 14% → 40% +26GB 14% → 40%+26 pts
- Q410:10Zay Flowers 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 34 – 24 GB · BAL 65% → 93% +28BAL 65% → 93%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML BAL +120 / GB -142
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -6
- GB 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.5 pts
- GB: Elo 69.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 17.5 – 20.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −178 | −136 | BAL: Tyler Huntley, usually Lamar Jackson · GB: Malik Willis, usually Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +146 Elo | GB 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 68.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.9 | Points scored | 24.312th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 20.29th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +4.110th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.72 | Yards per play | 5.6410th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 4.906th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 32 |
| 15th of 321546 | Elo rating | 16158th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.