Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Malik WillisPassing9/11, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- Emanuel WilsonRushing14 CAR, 82 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing19/34, 250 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 58 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT4:50DJ Moore 46 Yd pass from Caleb Williams16–22
- Q40:24Jahdae Walker 6 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)16–16
- Q41:59Cairo Santos 43 Yd Field Goal16–9
- Q45:03Brandon McManus 28 Yd Field Goal16–6
- Q410:52Cairo Santos 51 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q30:33Romeo Doubs 33 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brandon McManus Kick)13–3
- Q312:12Cairo Santos 46 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q21:41Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q212:45Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:41Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field GoalGB 6 – 0 CHI · GB 59% → 69% +10GB 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q312:12Cairo Santos 46 Yd Field GoalGB 6 – 3 CHI · CHI 29% → 40% +10CHI 29% → 40%+10 pts
- Q30:33Romeo Doubs 33 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 13 – 3 CHI · GB 64% → 89% +25GB 64% → 89%+25 pts
- Q40:24Jahdae Walker 6 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)GB 16 – 16 CHI · CHI <1% → 50% +50CHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:50DJ Moore 46 Yd pass from Caleb WilliamsGB 16 – 22 CHI · CHI 50% → 91% +41CHI 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML GB -102 / CHI -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2
- CHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 42.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- GB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 21.5 – 23.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +7 | GB: Jordan Love · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +50 Elo | GB 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 58.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 51.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 26.19th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 24.121st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.8 | Margin | +1.915th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 5.5810th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9328th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–2–1 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 32 |
| 20th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 32 |
| 6th of 321643 | Elo rating | 155415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.