Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing18/35, 177 YDS, 3 INT
- Shedeur SandersRushing2 CAR, 24 YDS
- Isaiah BondReceiving2 REC, 89 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing17/28, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing18 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:30Cairo Santos 41 Yd Field Goal3–31
- Q30:46D'Andre Swift 17 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)3–28
- Q38:39DJ Moore 22 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)3–21
- Q310:03Andre Szmyt 50 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q11:29DJ Moore 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)0–14
- Q17:35D'Andre Swift 6 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:35D'Andre Swift 6 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CLE 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 75% → 87% +13CHI 75% → 87%+13 pts
- Q11:29DJ Moore 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CLE 0 – 14 CHI · CHI 87% → 95% +8CHI 87% → 95%+8 pts
- Q310:03Andre Szmyt 50 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 14 CHI · CLE 3% → 6% +3CLE 3% → 6%+3 pts
- Q38:39DJ Moore 22 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CLE 3 – 21 CHI · CHI 94% → 99% +5CHI 94% → 99%+5 pts
- Q30:46D'Andre Swift 17 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CLE 3 – 28 CHI · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML CLE +295 / CHI -375
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -9.5
- CHI 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 79.4%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -317
- CLE +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 15.5 – 23.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −7 | +6 | CLE: Shedeur Sanders, usually Dillon Gabriel · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +235 Elo | CHI 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 77.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 76.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 25.78th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 25.825th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.34 | Yards per play | 5.5711th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.61 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1230th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 148523rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321352 | Elo rating | 153815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.