Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing27/41, 266 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 143 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenny GainwellReceiving5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing34/54, 364 YDS, 3 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing4 CAR, 14 YDS
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:11Jahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)29–24
- Q46:41Jaylen Warren 45 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)29–17
- Q48:39Kalif Raymond 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)22–17
- Q412:23Jaylen Warren 45 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)22–10
- Q414:58Chris Boswell 23 Yd Field Goal15–10
- Q39:42Jared Goff Sacked by Kyle Dugger For 5 Yd Loss for Safety12–10
- Q20:02Kenneth Gainwell 45 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)10–10
- Q21:55Isaac TeSlaa 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)3–10
- Q210:10Jake Bates 36 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:21Chris Boswell 59 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:55Isaac TeSlaa 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)PIT 3 – 10 DET · DET 70% → 87% +17DET 70% → 87%+17 pts
- Q20:02Kenneth Gainwell 45 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 10 DET · PIT 13% → 30% +18PIT 13% → 30%+18 pts
- Q412:23Jaylen Warren 45 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 22 – 10 DET · PIT 64% → 91% +27PIT 64% → 91%+27 pts
- Q48:39Kalif Raymond 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)PIT 22 – 17 DET · DET 4% → 29% +25DET 4% → 29%+25 pts
- Q46:41Jaylen Warren 45 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 29 – 17 DET · PIT 76% → 98% +22PIT 76% → 98%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML PIT +330 / DET -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- DET: Elo 64.4%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -331
- PIT +331 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 22.5 – 30.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | — | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +103 Elo | DET 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 76.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 30.61st of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 24.623rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +5.98th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.17 | Yards per play | 6.202nd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3919th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 7th of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 16th of 321526 | Elo rating | 16139th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.