Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/41, 338 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing13 CAR, 38 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving13 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/38, 368 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 181 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:42David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)34–41
- Q44:49Colby Parkinson 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)27–41
- Q47:54Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal27–34
- Q30:28Blake Corum 11 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)24–34
- Q32:26Colby Parkinson 26 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)24–27
- Q39:07Harrison Mevis 44 Yd Field Goal24–20
- Q20:00Harrison Mevis 37 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q20:30Jameson Williams 31 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)24–14
- Q26:12Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–14
- Q28:31Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–14
- Q212:04Jake Bates 24 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q12:44Kyren Williams 4 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–7
- Q18:07Amon-Ra St. Brown 17 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:31Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)DET 10 – 14 LAR · LAR 55% → 75% +20LAR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q26:12Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 17 – 14 LAR · DET 25% → 46% +21DET 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q20:30Jameson Williams 31 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 24 – 14 LAR · DET 48% → 71% +24DET 48% → 71%+24 pts
- Q32:26Colby Parkinson 26 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)DET 24 – 27 LAR · LAR 41% → 72% +31LAR 41% → 72%+31 pts
- Q30:28Blake Corum 11 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)DET 24 – 34 LAR · LAR 73% → 93% +20LAR 73% → 93%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -5.5
- ML DET +200 / LAR -245
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -3
- LAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- LAR: Elo 59.9%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- LAR -207
- DET +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.5 – 30.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1660 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +7 | DET: Jared Goff · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +69 Elo | LAR 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 60.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 67.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.3 | Points scored | 29.25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 17.53rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.9 | Margin | +11.72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 326.18 | Yards per play | 6.093rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 4.876th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150912th of 32 |
| 7th of 321633 | Elo rating | 16604th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–0 LAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.