Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing21/39, 168 YDS
- Jaylen WarrenRushing12 CAR, 64 YDS
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving3 REC, 63 YDS
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing17/23, 186 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Dylan SampsonRushing11 CAR, 27 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving5 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:40Andre Szmyt 33 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 40 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q214:54Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:11Harold Fannin Jr. 28 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–10
- Q110:48Andre Szmyt 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:48Andre Szmyt 50 Yd Field GoalPIT 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 35% → 42% +7CLE 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q15:11Harold Fannin Jr. 28 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)PIT 0 – 10 CLE · CLE 44% → 63% +19CLE 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q214:54Chris Boswell 44 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 10 CLE · PIT 35% → 44% +8PIT 35% → 44%+8 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 40 Yd Field GoalPIT 6 – 10 CLE · PIT 37% → 47% +10PIT 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q41:40Andre Szmyt 33 Yd Field GoalPIT 6 – 13 CLE · CLE 93% → >99% +7CLE 93% → >99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3.5
- ML PIT -205 / CLE +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -9
- PIT 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 78.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -191
- CLE +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.0 – 15.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 34.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | −16 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · CLE: Shedeur Sanders (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +224 Elo | PIT 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 75.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 65.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 16.431st of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −7.329th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 4.3032nd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 4.713rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 7th of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 151013th of 32 |
| 15th of 321556 | Elo rating | 133228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.