Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing12/19, 130 YDS
- James Cook IIIRushing16 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving4 REC, 34 YDS
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing20/29, 157 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Shedeur SandersRushing4 CAR, 49 YDS
- Trayveon WilliamsReceiving4 REC, 38 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:46Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q31:36Harold Fannin Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)23–17
- Q39:37Michael Badgley 41 Yd Field Goal23–10
- Q22:23James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)20–10
- Q25:38Andre Szmyt 24 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q212:54Ty Johnson 2 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)13–7
- Q17:47James Cook III 44 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)7–7
- Q110:42Harold Fannin Jr. 13 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:42Harold Fannin Jr. 13 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)BUF 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 18% → 33% +15CLE 18% → 33%+15 pts
- Q17:47James Cook III 44 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)BUF 7 – 7 CLE · BUF 66% → 81% +15BUF 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q212:54Ty Johnson 2 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)BUF 13 – 7 CLE · BUF 78% → 89% +11BUF 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q22:23James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley Kick)BUF 20 – 10 CLE · BUF 83% → 94% +11BUF 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q48:46Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field GoalBUF 23 – 20 CLE · CLE 9% → 20% +11CLE 9% → 20%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -10.5
- ML BUF -600 / CLE +440
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -12
- BUF 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 84.5%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -469
- CLE +469 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.0 – 15.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −16 | BUF: Josh Allen · CLE: Shedeur Sanders, usually Dillon Gabriel (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +294 Elo | BUF 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 83.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 82.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.4 | Points scored | 16.129th of 32 |
| 16th of 3223.1 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.2 | Margin | −7.627th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.02 | Yards per play | 4.2832nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 4.694th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 32 |
| 4th of 321651 | Elo rating | 133728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.