Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing25/39, 283 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing24 CAR, 117 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving6 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing26/46, 279 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Bo NixRushing12 CAR, 29 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT4:44Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal30–33
- Q40:05Matt Prater 50 Yd Field Goal30–30
- Q40:55Marvin Mims Jr. 26 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)27–30
- Q44:11Matt Prater 31 Yd Field Goal27–23
- Q413:24Dalton Kincaid 14 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)24–23
- Q36:49Keon Coleman 10 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)17–23
- Q311:35Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q20:00Wil Lutz 50 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q20:22Lil'Jordan Humphrey 29 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–17
- Q22:13Matt Prater 33 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q29:33Frank Crum 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–10
- Q10:05Mecole Hardman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)7–3
- Q17:29Wil Lutz 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q413:24Dalton Kincaid 14 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 24 – 23 DEN · BUF 20% → 54% +34BUF 20% → 54%+34 pts
- Q44:11Matt Prater 31 Yd Field GoalBUF 27 – 23 DEN · BUF 59% → 82% +24BUF 59% → 82%+24 pts
- Q40:55Marvin Mims Jr. 26 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)BUF 27 – 30 DEN · DEN 2% → 94% +92DEN 2% → 94%+92 pts
- Q40:05Matt Prater 50 Yd Field GoalBUF 30 – 30 DEN · BUF <1% → 50% +50BUF <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:44Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field GoalBUF 30 – 33 DEN · DEN 51% → 76% +25DEN 51% → 76%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML BUF +105 / DEN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -115
- BUF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 22.0 – 23.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1669 | 1666 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | BUF: Josh Allen · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +37 Elo | DEN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 53.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 18.33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.8 | Margin | +5.37th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.91 | Yards per play | 5.3315th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 4.461st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
| 27th of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 144431st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321669 | Elo rating | 16664th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.