New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brady CookPassing11/22, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil HerbertRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS
- Isaiah WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 24 YDS
Bills- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing22/29, 259 YDS, 4 TD
- Ray DavisRushing21 CAR, 151 YDS
- Keon ColemanReceiving2 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:33Andrew Beck 2 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Brady Cook Pass to Quentin Skinner for Two-Point Conversion)8–35
- Q412:05Ty Johnson 6 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–35
- Q37:46Gabe Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Mitchell Trubisky Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)0–29
- Q24:58Ray Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Matt Prater Kick)0–21
- Q211:43Ty Johnson 6 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)0–14
- Q18:17Dawson Knox 17 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:17Dawson Knox 17 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Matt Prater Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 85% → 93% +8BUF 85% → 93%+8 pts
- Q211:43Ty Johnson 6 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)NYJ 0 – 14 BUF · BUF 92% → 98% +5BUF 92% → 98%+5 pts
- Q24:58Ray Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Matt Prater Kick)NYJ 0 – 21 BUF · BUF 98% → >99% +2BUF 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q37:46Gabe Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Mitchell Trubisky Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 0 – 29 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q412:05Ty Johnson 6 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYJ 0 – 35 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -13.5
- ML NYJ +550 / BUF -800
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -19
- BUF 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 93.9%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -622
- NYJ +622 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 13.0 – 26.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1300 | 1645 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −93 | — | NYJ: Brady Cook, usually Aaron Rodgers · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +475 Elo | BUF 93.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 93.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 93.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 86.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 31st of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 22.314th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−11.0 | Margin | +5.66th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.52 | Yards per play | 5.876th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3818th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321300 | Elo rating | 16454th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–4 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.