Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing13/27, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing19 CAR, 68 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/35, 262 YDS
- James Cook IIIRushing20 CAR, 74 YDS
- Brandin CooksReceiving4 REC, 101 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:05Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q45:11Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)13–6
- Q20:08Jake Elliott 28 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q25:03Jake Elliott 47 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q10:35Dallas Goedert 1 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:35Dallas Goedert 1 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 BUF · PHI 41% → 61% +20PHI 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q25:03Jake Elliott 47 Yd Field GoalPHI 10 – 0 BUF · PHI 65% → 73% +9PHI 65% → 73%+9 pts
- Q20:08Jake Elliott 28 Yd Field GoalPHI 13 – 0 BUF · PHI 76% → 83% +7PHI 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q45:11Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)PHI 13 – 6 BUF · BUF <1% → 8% +7BUF <1% → 8%+7 pts
- Q40:05Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PHI 13 – 12 BUF · BUF 0% → 5% +5BUF 0% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3.5
- ML PHI +142 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -2.5
- BUF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -152
- PHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.0 – 24.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +67 Elo | BUF 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 28.93rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3219.3 | Points allowed | 22.917th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +6.06th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 5.974th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5019th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 148125th of 32 |
| 8th of 321620 | Elo rating | 16564th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.