Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing22/30, 185 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing21 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving9 REC, 95 YDS
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing7/14, 95 YDS
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving3 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Chris Rodriguez Jr. 3 Yd Rush (Jeremy McNichols Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–18
- Q44:26Tank Bigsby 22 Yd Rush (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–10
- Q411:33Saquon Barkley 12 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)21–10
- Q33:27Dallas Goedert 15 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–10
- Q23:40Jacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)7–10
- Q12:37DeVonta Smith 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–3
- Q111:39Jake Moody 20 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Jake Moody 20 Yd Field GoalPHI 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 25% → 31% +7WSH 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q12:37DeVonta Smith 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 3 WSH · PHI 66% → 82% +16PHI 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q23:40Jacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)PHI 7 – 10 WSH · WSH 19% → 39% +20WSH 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q33:27Dallas Goedert 15 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 10 WSH · PHI 52% → 80% +28PHI 52% → 80%+28 pts
- Q411:33Saquon Barkley 12 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 10 WSH · PHI 81% → 97% +16PHI 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7
- ML PHI -380 / WSH +300
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7.5
- PHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 74.1%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -314
- WSH +314 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 25.3 – 18.3 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −23 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +183 Elo | PHI 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 75.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 20.824th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 26.826th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+3.5 | Margin | −6.024th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 5.5112th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.06 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1531st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 32 |
| 8th of 321605 | Elo rating | 141423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.