Washington Commanders at New York Giants, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing10/19, 211 YDS, 1 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing18 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving3 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing20/36, 246 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Theo JohnsonReceiving3 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:43Wan'Dale Robinson 16 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Younghoe Koo Kick)29–21
- Q413:46Terry McLaurin 51 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Moody Kick)29–14
- Q311:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Younghoe Koo Kick)22–14
- Q20:00Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal22–7
- Q21:05Jaylin Lane 63 Yd Punt Return (Jake Moody PAT Failed)19–7
- Q23:37Tyrone Tracy Jr. 12 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)13–7
- Q28:26Jake Moody 39 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q213:38Jacory Croskey-Merritt 16 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)10–0
- Q19:22Jake Moody 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:38Jacory Croskey-Merritt 16 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)WSH 10 – 0 NYG · WSH 52% → 72% +19WSH 52% → 72%+19 pts
- Q23:37Tyrone Tracy Jr. 12 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)WSH 13 – 7 NYG · NYG 17% → 36% +19NYG 17% → 36%+19 pts
- Q21:05Jaylin Lane 63 Yd Punt Return (Jake Moody PAT Failed)WSH 19 – 7 NYG · WSH 65% → 82% +17WSH 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q311:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Younghoe Koo Kick)WSH 22 – 14 NYG · NYG 10% → 27% +17NYG 10% → 27%+17 pts
- Q413:46Terry McLaurin 51 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Jake Moody Kick)WSH 29 – 14 NYG · WSH 83% → 97% +14WSH 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYG -3
- ML WSH +130 / NYG -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -0.5
- NYG 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYG: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYG -137
- WSH +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.3 – 24.3 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −32 | −3 | WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels · NYG: Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +10 Elo | NYG 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 53.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYG 57.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 21.523rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.2 | Points allowed | 28.230th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.1 | Margin | −6.826th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 5.2818th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.19 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0429th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
| 9th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 15591st of 32 |
| 26th of 321386 | Elo rating | 133130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–9 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 NYG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.