Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing26/38, 327 YDS, 4 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing16 CAR, 52 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 142 YDS, 2 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing20/31, 248 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing21 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- Dalton KincaidReceiving7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:42Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)31–41
- Q42:50James Cook III 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)24–41
- Q410:53Sam LaPorta 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)24–34
- Q31:07Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)17–34
- Q39:29Amon-Ra St. Brown 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–27
- Q20:00Jake Bates 31 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q22:52Dalton Kincaid 16 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT Failed)7–27
- Q25:03Jahmyr Gibbs 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–21
- Q211:48Dawson Knox 1 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–21
- Q13:42Joshua Palmer 43 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–14
- Q19:09Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:09Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)DET 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 67% → 82% +15BUF 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q13:42Joshua Palmer 43 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)DET 0 – 14 BUF · BUF 82% → 92% +10BUF 82% → 92%+10 pts
- Q211:48Dawson Knox 1 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)DET 0 – 21 BUF · BUF 93% → 98% +5BUF 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q39:29Amon-Ra St. Brown 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 17 – 27 BUF · DET 2% → 10% +8DET 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q31:07Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)DET 17 – 34 BUF · BUF 93% → 99% +6BUF 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -5.5
- ML DET +200 / BUF -245
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4.5
- BUF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 66.1%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -212
- DET +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.5 – 30.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +116 Elo | BUF 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 64.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 67.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 28.34th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 21.512th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +6.85th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.97 | Yards per play | 5.915th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2515th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 7th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 148428th of 32 |
| 13th of 321549 | Elo rating | 16292nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.