Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing27/42, 331 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing19 CAR, 80 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving11 REC, 139 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing20/33, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Colston LovelandReceiving10 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Bates 42 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q45:25Colston Loveland 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Cole Kmet for Two-Point Conversion)16–16
- Q414:16Jahdae Walker 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Kyle Monangai Run for Two-Point Conversion)16–8
- Q32:11Jake Bates 25 Yd Field Goal16–0
- Q24:40Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)13–0
- Q211:28Jake Bates 30 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q18:35Jake Bates 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:28Jake Bates 30 Yd Field GoalDET 6 – 0 CHI · DET 50% → 59% +9DET 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q24:40Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 13 – 0 CHI · DET 62% → 81% +19DET 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q414:16Jahdae Walker 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Kyle Monangai Run for Two-Point Conversion)DET 16 – 8 CHI · CHI 3% → 18% +16CHI 3% → 18%+16 pts
- Q45:25Colston Loveland 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Cole Kmet for Two-Point Conversion)DET 16 – 16 CHI · CHI 6% → 53% +48CHI 6% → 53%+48 pts
- Q40:00Jake Bates 42 Yd Field GoalDET 19 – 16 CHI · DET 46% → 100% +54DET 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3
- ML DET +142 / CHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 59.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -152
- DET +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.3 – 27.3 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +9 | DET: Jared Goff · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +69 Elo | CHI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3228.9 | Points scored | 26.69th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 24.823rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.1 | Margin | +1.815th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.728th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0029th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321544 | Elo rating | 156813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.