Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/29, 197 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing17 CAR, 41 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 68 YDS
Vikings- Max BrosmerPassing9/16, 51 YDS
- Jordan AddisonRushing1 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving4 REC, 30 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:04Will Reichard 42 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q43:43Jordan Addison 65 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)10–20
- Q44:39Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q31:57Will Reichard 56 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q33:03Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q21:05Isaac TeSlaa 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–7
- Q11:35Aaron Jones Sr. 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:35Aaron Jones Sr. 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)DET 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 29% → 47% +19MIN 29% → 47%+19 pts
- Q21:05Isaac TeSlaa 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 7 MIN · DET 44% → 68% +24DET 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q31:57Will Reichard 56 Yd Field GoalDET 7 – 13 MIN · MIN 51% → 64% +14MIN 51% → 64%+14 pts
- Q44:39Jake Bates 48 Yd Field GoalDET 10 – 13 MIN · DET 12% → 31% +19DET 12% → 31%+19 pts
- Q43:43Jordan Addison 65 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)DET 10 – 20 MIN · MIN 73% → >99% +27MIN 73% → >99%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DET -360 / MIN +285
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.7 pts
- DET: Elo 57.4%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -284
- MIN +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 26.5 – 19.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −90 | DET: Jared Goff · MIN: Max Brosmer, usually J.J. McCarthy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +52 Elo | DET 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.1 | Points scored | 20.326th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 21.311th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+5.2 | Margin | −1.018th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.13 | Yards per play | 4.9527th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.895th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 32 |
| 12th of 321583 | Elo rating | 158511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.