Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing9/14, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing21 CAR, 85 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing7/13, 33 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 71 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving3 REC, 19 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:15Will Reichard 30 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q411:06Ben Sauls 39 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:17Tyler Nubin 27 Yd Fumble Recovery by Brian Burns For 27 Yd Loss (Ben Sauls Kick)13–10
- Q22:01J.J. McCarthy 12 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)13–3
- Q24:50Will Reichard 31 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q211:04Ben Sauls 27 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:49Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:50Will Reichard 31 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 3 NYG · MIN 57% → 66% +9MIN 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q22:01J.J. McCarthy 12 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 13 – 3 NYG · MIN 66% → 85% +18MIN 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q20:17Tyler Nubin 27 Yd Fumble Recovery by Brian Burns For 27 Yd Loss (Ben Sauls Kick)MIN 13 – 10 NYG · NYG 15% → 34% +19NYG 15% → 34%+19 pts
- Q411:06Ben Sauls 39 Yd Field GoalMIN 13 – 13 NYG · NYG 30% → 46% +17NYG 30% → 46%+17 pts
- Q44:15Will Reichard 30 Yd Field GoalMIN 16 – 13 NYG · MIN 52% → 78% +26MIN 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -148 / NYG +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 73.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -141
- NYG +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 22.0 – 19.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1303 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −55 | +2 | MIN: J.J. McCarthy · NYG: Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +180 Elo | MIN 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.6 | Points scored | 21.422nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 28.329th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.3 | Margin | −6.926th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.01 | Yards per play | 5.3118th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0330th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 15492nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321577 | Elo rating | 130330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.