Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing25/42, 330 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing9 CAR, 54 YDS, 2 TD
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving8 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing24/33, 303 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing23 CAR, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- Ricky PearsallReceiving5 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:15Jauan Jennings 38 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)38–42
- Q45:22Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal38–35
- Q414:54D'Andre Swift 22 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)35–35
- Q34:52Kyle Juszczyk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)28–35
- Q39:51D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)28–28
- Q23:23Brock Purdy 3 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)21–28
- Q212:20Colston Loveland 36 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)21–21
- Q213:44Christian McCaffrey 5 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–21
- Q12:58Luther Burden III 35 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–14
- Q14:52Brock Purdy 10 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–14
- Q110:57Jake Tonges 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q114:45T.J. Edwards 34 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:51D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 28 – 28 SF · CHI 17% → 39% +22CHI 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q34:52Kyle Juszczyk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CHI 28 – 35 SF · SF 59% → 84% +25SF 59% → 84%+25 pts
- Q414:54D'Andre Swift 22 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 35 – 35 SF · CHI 14% → 42% +28CHI 14% → 42%+28 pts
- Q45:22Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field GoalCHI 38 – 35 SF · CHI 45% → 69% +24CHI 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q42:15Jauan Jennings 38 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CHI 38 – 42 SF · SF 19% → 92% +73SF 19% → 92%+73 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SF -4.5
- ML CHI +185 / SF -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -3.5
- SF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SF: Elo 62.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -195
- CHI +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 23.5 – 28.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +40 | CHI: Caleb Williams · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +91 Elo | SF 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 66.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.8 | Points scored | 26.19th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 21.311th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+2.2 | Margin | +4.87th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.65 | Yards per play | 5.4614th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.90 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5623rd of 32 |
| 5th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 24th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 147627th of 32 |
| 12th of 321582 | Elo rating | 16059th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.