New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing35/56, 410 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 46 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving10 REC, 182 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing26/39, 206 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing29 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving10 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT1:34Noah Fant 8 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–31
- OT5:04Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)24–31
- Q41:07Juwan Johnson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–24
- Q42:32Jake Bates 23 Yd Field Goal17–24
- Q47:41Daniel Carlson 28 Yd Field Goal17–21
- Q30:28Devaughn Vele 1 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–21
- Q34:27Kendre Miller 8 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–21
- Q38:54Amon-Ra St. Brown 19 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)0–21
- Q311:14Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–14
- Q13:39Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:39Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)NO 0 – 7 DET · DET 72% → 86% +14DET 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q47:41Daniel Carlson 28 Yd Field GoalNO 17 – 21 DET · NO 7% → 18% +10NO 7% → 18%+10 pts
- Q41:07Juwan Johnson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)NO 24 – 24 DET · NO <1% → 47% +47NO <1% → 47%+47 pts
- OT5:04Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)NO 24 – 31 DET · DET 57% → 96% +38DET 57% → 96%+38 pts
- OT1:34Noah Fant 8 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NO 30 – 31 DET · NO <1% → 31% +31NO <1% → 31%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7
- ML NO +270 / DET -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DET: Elo 68.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -280
- NO +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 21.3 – 28.3 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −16 | — | NO: Tyler Shough · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +133 Elo | DET 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 70.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 28.34th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 24.322nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.5 | Margin | +4.08th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.96 | Yards per play | 5.973rd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.84 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3718th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 27th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 32 |
| 21st of 321463 | Elo rating | 154311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NO |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.