New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing23/35, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Audric EstimeRushing21 CAR, 63 YDS
- Juwan JohnsonReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing18/32, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing15 CAR, 33 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:11Ronnie Bell 16 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)17–19
- Q42:52Zane Gonzalez 38 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q410:43Zane Gonzalez 38 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q32:15Charlie Smyth 29 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q38:50Zane Gonzalez 51 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q24:31Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)7–10
- Q210:19Zane Gonzalez 40 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q13:02Drake London 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:02Drake London 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)NO 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 61% → 78% +17ATL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q24:31Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 7 – 10 ATL · NO 14% → 31% +17NO 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q32:15Charlie Smyth 29 Yd Field GoalNO 10 – 13 ATL · NO 19% → 30% +11NO 19% → 30%+11 pts
- Q410:43Zane Gonzalez 38 Yd Field GoalNO 10 – 16 ATL · ATL 72% → 85% +13ATL 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q41:11Ronnie Bell 16 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 17 – 19 ATL · NO <1% → 17% +17NO <1% → 17%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML NO +160 / ATL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -168
- NO +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.0 – 23.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −20 | +26 | NO: Tyler Shough · ATL: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3218.1 | Points scored | 20.924th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 24.020th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.7 | Margin | −3.122nd of 32 |
| 27th of 324.94 | Yards per play | 5.5212th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2814th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
| 29th of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 32 |
| 21st of 321455 | Elo rating | 143224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.